Sunday, August 14, 2005

Special--200% Off*

The Sunday Palo Alto Daily News runs an article about a miscalculation over how much money might be saved through military base closings: "Base closing projections could be $25 billion off". According to the independent commission overseeing base closings, pentagon estimates are off by 50%. Trouble is the story says the figure is $50 billion--making the Daily's headline off by 200%.

* see comments


Blogger Mike Liveright said...

I guess my math doesn't match yours.

1) The original estimate was $50 billion/20 years

2) The "independant" commission estimated that the $50B was perhaps over estimated by nearly to 50%

3) 50% of $50B is, as I compute it, $25B (as in the headline)

Where am I missing the point?


a) Estimates are estimates, and though I would not expect a 50% error, I would not be surprised at a 10$ error.

b) Our federal national budget is in the ball park of $2,000 billion/year, so this savings of $2.5 billion/year (or) $1.25 is roughly 0.1% of the budget, worthwhile, but minor in it self?

4:23 PM  
Blogger Bob said... think I should just leave this post up and hope no one else notices?

7:02 PM  
Anonymous Smoking Jay said...

Fuzzy math by all?? If $50 billion is 50% higher than the original estimate, then the original estimage must have been $33.3 billion.....I agree with Mike L, estimates are estimates and politicians have been twisting the numbers for eternity -- to them, the end always justifies the means.

Bob, leave it up. It proves you are human...

10:57 AM  
Blogger Bob said...

Jay seems to feel my humanity was subject to debate. My math is fuzzy--I'm not.

2:05 PM  

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